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Wednesday, November 9, 2011

CINCINNATI REDS - Major Needs, Minor Seeds

Francisco Cordero, second among active pitchers in saves (327), is a free agent.
Which teams were baseball's biggest disappointments in 2011?

Certainly the Red Sox and Braves, who pulled the ultimate choke in the season's waning days, are in the running.

The defending champion Giants were a letdown but only because their life blood was spilled the day catcher Buster Posey went down.

I'm left with three teams, all Midwest staples with fantastic fan bases and plenty of wasted potential:  The Minnesota Twins (63-99), Chicago White Sox (79-83), and Cincinatti Reds (79-83).

Today, we'll focus on the Reds' most prominent questions - and the answers to those questions - as we begin the 2011 off-season.

MAJOR NEEDS
  • Bang for your buck
Word has it the Reds and GM Walt Jocketty don't have much to spend this off-season, especially after exercising Brandon Phillips' $12 million option.  There's still the matter of resigning Francisco Cordero (Aroldis Chapman isn't ready to close out games just yet), and the Reds have other needs in both the starting rotation and the bullpen.  Fortunately, the lineup is stacked with great young hitters under contract, so the attention can be focused elsewhere.  
  • You've got the prospects - use them
If you're strapped for cash, what's the best way to improve your team?  Trades!
And the Reds are more than capable of swinging a few thanks to a deep and advanced farm system.  Top young talents Chris Heisey (OF), Devin Mesoraco (C), Todd Frazier (IF), Paul Janish (IF), Dave Sappelt (OF), and Travis Wood (P) could all be available for the right return.  LF Yonder Alonso and SS Zach Cozart are simply too talented and valuable to trade, unless they return amazing value.

But this is a two-sided coin.  Those prospects that don't get swapped deserve a chance to prove themselves in a Major League lineup.  Heisey, Frazier and Wood have each earned spots, but there aren't enough to go around.  It's time for Walt Jocketty to upgrade his team by giving some of these guys up so others get a chance to start. 
  • Go get a top-tier pitcher
The Reds have one fringe ace in Johnny Cueto.  The rest of this rotation fits somewhere between a #4 and #5 starter.  That's not gonna cut it.

Since the Reds won't have money to contend for a C.J. Wilson or Mark Buehrle, they'll have to pick up an ace through trade.  MLB Trade Rumors - which covers this stuff like a blanket - suggests that Kenny Williams and the White Sox could be an ideal trading partner for Walt Jocketty.  The South Side Sox could hold a fire sale this season, which means pitching studs Gavin Floyd and John Danks could be had.  Other ideal targets for the Reds to consider:
When healthy, Jurrjens offers front-line potential (2011 First Half: 12-3, 1.87 ERA)
    • Jair Jurrjens (ATL) - The Braves have been "floating" him around, but would seek a massive return, more than what the White Sox want for Floyd or Danks.
    • Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) - He's been talked about for the past year as a trade candidate for a rebuilding Astros team.  
    • James Shields (TB) - Matt Moore needs a spot in that Tampa rotation, and Shields is apparently always on the block.
    • Wade Davis (TB) - Another trade possibility from the Rays, though he barely qualifies as a "potential ace."
    • Gio Gonzalez (OAK) - Billy Beane is reportedly looking to once again dump his best pitchers.  That probably means they're about to tank (a la Barry Zito).
    • Trevor Cahill (OAK) - Yep, even Cahill.
  • Go sign a couple vets - it is Veteran's Day after all
Any time I see an exciting young team on the cusp of competing, I look for the veterans.  Every team needs a few savvy vets to help guide the youngsters through the ups and downs.  Guys who have played on both first place and last place teams are invaluable resources to the star-struck newbies who are still adjusting to the bright lights of Major League ball.

The Reds have one excellent veteran already in 3B Scott Rolen.  I say they could use at least one more, ideally at C (Ivan Rodriguez is still out there) and perhaps at SS (maybe try Orlando Cabrera instead of Edgar Renteria this time?).  

MINOR SEEDS

This is where the Reds could really shine in 2012.  It's not worth dropping names like SS Zach Cozart or LF Yonder Alonso again here, since both saw ample playing time last season.  But a few other up-and-coming bats in the Reds farm system will get substantial playing time and could be impact players.    
  • Devin Mesoraco (C) - Ramon Hernandez is gone, so the door is half-way open for one of the top catching prospects in baseball.   Right behind Mesoraco, another top catcher in Yasmani Grandal is waiting for a chance.
  • Juan Francisco (3B) - Look out Scott Rolen, cause this 240-pound third base stud is knocking on the door.  Francisco's bat has MLB potential right now, but he might have to wait another year to earn the job.
    Billy Hamilton led pro baseball in steals in 2011
  • Billy Hamilton (SS) - Many presume that the fastest man in baseball will move to 2B and eventually replace Brandon Phillips.  I watched Hamilton in the Midwest League last season.  Not only did his bat come a long way, but he really is the best base-stealer in the game.  
  • Brad Boxberger (RHP) - This guy has excelled as a closer since his USC days.  He moved all the way up to AAA Louisville in 2011, and still locked it down as the 9th inning stopper.  Boxberger should join the Reds bullpen this year, and could be the closer before too long.
  • Honorable Mention - Dennis Phipps (.380 avg in AAA - wow), Josh Smith (LHP with nice stuff), Drew Hayes (dominant closer for A-ball Dayton).  
NEXT UP: NL EAST, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

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