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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS - Major Needs, Minor Seeds

Beginning today, November 2nd, we'll journey across the MLB and answer the biggest offseason questions for every team.  Which areas must each team address?  Which minor league studs are coming through the pipeline?

We'll begin in the National League Central, a compelling division because it best embodies rebirth and upheaval.  Please post your thoughts and don't be shy.


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS - PART 1 of 30


It seems appropriate to begin with the team that captured a nation's attention and stole the show with a Cinderella finish to 2011.

Down ten and a half games to the Braves in the Wild Card with just over a month remaining in the season, the Cardinals staged a comeback for the ages.  They snuck into the Playoffs on the season's final day, only to meet the indestructible Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS.  Chris Carpenter's magical game five performance kept this team moving, into the NLCS where they took down the division rival Brewers.

But most will remember game six of the World Series, Cards vs. Rangers.  In one of baseball's ultimate thrillers, the Redbirds clawed through impossible circumstances to pull out a win.  None of it matters if they don't seal the deal with a game seven win, their second World Series title in five years. 

Believe it or not, the drama in St. Louis doesn't stop there.  The Cards already had their offseason plate full before a spooky Halloween announcement from legendary skipper Tony La Russa.  They must now reconcile two crucial needs while keeping the magic and chemistry of this team intact.

MAJOR NEEDS:
  • Who's on first?
To lock up the best hitter in baseball, you'll need to pay top dollar.  Even after a heavy dose of October magic, first basemen Albert Pujols will offer no charity to the town in which he's built a career.  It'll take at least seven years and at least $25 million to get Mr. Pujols attention.  Frankly, I don't see how the Cardinals can afford him but they have to try.  If the rival Cubs or another salary-flexible, power-starved market ties up Pujols, the Cards can shift the rejuvenated Lance Berkman to first base and place World Series hero Allen Craig in right field.  It's still a solid lineup, but don't underestimate what Pujols means to this team.

  • Hard to replace a legend 
Tony La Russa is leaving baseball at the perfect time.  Better to go out on top, rather than pulling a Michael Jordan.  Now the Cardinals must find a replacement, one of three MAJOR markets currently searching for a new skipper (Cards, Cubs, Red Sox).  A veteran team like this one would be well-suited for a guy like Terry Francona (if he's ready to jump back into managing), but whoever the Cardinals hire will have a hard time replicating what La Russa brought to this club.

  • Furcy's looking murky
Shortstop is an area of concern with veteran acquisition Rafael Furcal headed to free agency.  The Cardinals claimed that Furcal's easy-going energy and experience helped spark their wild finish, but it's likely the team will go a different route in 2012.  If the Cards resign Pujols, they'll be forced to scrounge up whatever they can at shortstop (and everywhere else on the diamond).  But if Pujols jumps ship, expect St. Louis to contend for the big name free agents (Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins).

  • Everybody needs pitching
How on Earth did the Cardinals win the World Series without Adam Wainwright?  The hope is that the Cards' best pitcher returns healthy to the rotation in 2012 after Tommy John surgery and gives the Cardinals an excellent three-man front of the rotation (Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia).  Edwin Jackson will be a free agent, but the Cards will still have Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook.  We'll touch on pitching depth further when we get to the Minor League outlook.
  • Will the real closer please stand up? 
Ryan Franklin fell apart and the Cardinals turned to a closer-by-committee situation in 2011.  Somehow, the bullpen held up in the playoffs and even shined in the NLDS and NLCS.  But it's time for this team to find a closer.  Again, financial limitations could play a role here if Pujols returns.  Expect the Cards to go after K-Rod or another top-tier free agent if they have anything to spend.  Otherwise, perhaps veteran Joe Nathan gets a fresh start with an NL contender.

MINOR SEEDS:

This is where we inspect the crop of talent in the Minors and determine which up-and-comers could make an impact in 2012.  The Cardinals have a talented system with plenty of names to track.  We'll leave you with just a few:
  • Shelby Miller (RHP) - One of baseball's best pitching prospects for a few years running.  The tall righty spent last season with AA Springfield and excelled (9-3, 2.70 ERA).  He's on track to join the big league club next year if he plays his cards (get it?) right.
  • Tyler Greene (SS) - Greene had his chance at the show last year and hit .212 in more than 100 AB's.  He also stole 11 bases without getting caught.  The Cards will need a replacement for Rafael Furcal, and they might just look in-house. 
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  • Zach Cox (3B) - Cox was the best college hitter I ever watched, tearing it up at Arkansas and in the Cape Cod Baseball League.  A former 1st round pick, the Cards have high hopes for the young third baseman.  They also have a guy named David Freese blocking the position.  Cox has the bat to help a big league club next season, but won't necessarily get a chance.
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  • Matt Adams (1B) - Adams tore apart AA pitching in 2011, batting .300 with 32 homers in only 460 AB's.  He's still young (23) and needs to prove himself at the next level, but Adams could be waiting in the wings to take Lance Berkman's job if the Cards don't bring Pujols back.  

NEXT UP:  CHICAGO CUBS

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