PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - Major Needs, Minor Seeds

Why is Jon Papelbon so stoked?  Because Philly just made him the richest closer in baseball.

Remember how good Tiger Woods was ten years ago?  It wasn't as much a matter of "who will win," but rather "by how many strokes?"

Roger Federer had the same thing going until that pesky Spaniard Rafael Nadal came along.

Sometimes, the underdog has his day and the favorite is dubbed "overrated."  

In short, it's not easy being the best. 

Such was life for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011.  A franchise record 102 regular season wins wasn't nearly enough to satisfy the appetite of the Philly front office and a massive fan base.  An enormous payroll and a legendary pitching staff were supposed to take the Phils back to the promised land.  Guess baseball can't be simplified into projections and statistics after all.  

How about this for a statistic: $12.5 million per year over four years.  That's how Philadelphia opened up the off-season, handing the largest closer contract in history to Red Sox righty Jon Papelbon.  

My take?  

Big mistake.

MAJOR NEEDS

• Don't overspend on a closer...whoops, too late

First, rumor spread that GM Ruben Amaro had offered 2011 closer Ryan Madson 4 years/$44 million.  That quickly died down when the Phils officially forked over $50 million to Papelbon.  

Yes, the Phillies are a legitimate contender once again.  It makes sense to pursue a lock-it-down 9th inning guy so the Halladays and Lees in this rotation aren't sweating it after leaving with a 2-1 lead.  But is Papelbon worth it?  

The Jonathan Papelbon I see has already reached the peak of his potential.  He was an All-Star each of his first four seasons (06-09), then came out flat in 2010, posting a career-worst 3.90 ERA.  Last season was a bounce-back for Papelbon - he struck out a career-high 87 batters and lowered his ERA to 2.94.  

But he still wasn't the young, flame-throwing righty the Sox won a Series with in '07.  He proved it by blowing a save to the Orioles on the season's final day, costing the Red Sox a berth in the Playoffs.  

Some of baseball's most respected pundits believe no closer warrants a contract like the one Papelbon got.  The idea is that anybody can do what these guys do...you just need two great pitches and some grooming.   I won't go that far, because the 8th inning and the 9th inning just aren't the same.  But for a team with a payroll over $130 million, couldn't the Phillies find a more affordable option?  Or an option that wouldn't cost them a first round draft pick (like Papelbon did)?

To be fair, I still believe Papelbon can be an effective MLB closer.  Problem is, there were probably a dozen other options out there for the Phils, many of which would have come at an affordable rate through trade. 

• Instead, put that money into a lineup that needs help

If Ruben Amaro is so eager to throw money at free agents this Winter, why not focus on what really needs to addressed.  

SS Jimmy Rollins and OF Raul Ibanez are free agents.  The rest of the Phillies infield (1B Howard, 2B Utley, 3B Polanco) are injury liabilities.  This team needs at least three bats, and so far they've signed just one - veteran 1B Jim Thome (a nice move, by the way).  

First, let's look at SS.  J-Roll is reportedly seeking 4 years at $13 million per season.  Geez, what is wrong with these guys?  How did it come to this, that a veteran SS with at most 4 decent years left is entitled that kind of money?  But that's besides the point.

If the Phillies can afford it, it makes more sense to target Jose Reyes at SS.  They'll have to outbid the Miami Marlins, but Reyes for 5 years at around $17 million is a better deal than Rollins at 4 years and $13 million.  

Otherwise, the target will be either Rafael Furcal or Clint Barmes, both letdowns for a star-studded Phillies infield.  

The prime target to replace Raul Ibanez is Twins OF Michael Cuddyer, who could also back up Utley, Polanco and Howard on the infield.  Seems like a smart signing, particularly because Cuddy is extremely well-liked and a perfect veteran presence for a championship contender.  Keep in mind that OF John Mayberry impressed in limited AB's, and should contend for the final spot in the Phillies outfield along with overrated prospect Domonic Brown.

The Phils still have some spending room, even after an egregious closer contract.  You can bet this team will make some off-season headlines in the months ahead. 

• The bullpen still needs some work

Ryan Madson isn't the only departing Phillies reliever this off-season.  He's joined by former closer Brad Lidge, who will have to be replaced.  Jose Contreras enjoyed a revival season when healthy, but can he and youngster Antonio Bastardo be counted on again?

The Phillies will likely add two steady arms to the pen this off-season.  Here are the options for all teams in need of some bullpen help, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors:

Right-handed relievers
David Aardsma (29)
Jeremy Accardo (30)
Luis Ayala (34)
Danys Baez (34)
Miguel Batista (41)
Dave Bush (32)
Shawn Camp (36) - Type B
Todd Coffey (31)
Juan Cruz (31)
Octavio Dotel (38) - Type A
Chad Durbin (34)
Jeff Fulchino (32)
Juan Gutierrez (28)
LaTroy Hawkins (37)
Aaron Heilman (33)
Ryota Igarashi (33)
Jason Isringhausen (39)
Chris Jakubauskas (33)
Brad Lidge (35) - Type B
Scott Linebrink (35)
Mike MacDougal (35)
Guillermo Mota (38)
Pat Neshek (31)
Ramon Ortiz (39)
Vicente Padilla (34)
Tony Pena (30)
Chad Qualls (33)
Jon Rauch (33) - Type B
Fernando Rodney (35)
Adam Russell (29)
Takashi Saito (42) - Type A
Dan Wheeler (34) - Type B
Kerry Wood (35) - Type B
Jamey Wright (37)
Michael Wuertz (33)
Joel Zumaya (27)

Left-handed relievers
Mike Gonzalez (34)
John Grabow (33)
Damaso Marte (37)
Trever Miller (39)
Darren Oliver (41) - Type A
Arthur Rhodes (41) - Type B
J.C. Romero (36)
George Sherrill (35)
Brian Tallet (34)

• Trade SP Joe Blanton already 

Seriously.  Why is he still in Philadelphia?  Now with just one year left on his contract, Blanton is an ideal acquisition for a team in search of a fourth or fifth starter.  The Phillies would likely swallow some of his $8.5 million for 2012, and they have almost no reason to keep him.  If Blanton can return help on the infield, a solid bullpen arm, or even a couple nice prospects...he's worth trading.   

MINOR SEEDS 

Teams like the Phillies are naturally less reliant on the Minor League pipeline.  They made that clear when they shipped off their two best prospects (1B Jonathan Singleton and SP Jared Cosart) to Houston for Hunter Pence.  

But to sustain a mighty franchise, a GM must continue to develop his farm system to supplement free agent acquisitions.  The Phillies still have a pretty nice group coming up (particularly in the pitching department), though few will see Major League action in 2012.

• Michael Shwimer (RHP ) - This 6-8, 240-pound reliever dominated the AAA ranks (9-1, 1.85 ERA), striking out more than a batter per inning.  Like SP Vance Worley and reliever Michael Stutes, Schwimer could earn a chance at big league action if he starts out hot.

Trevor May was third in MILB in K's (208)

• Trevor May (RHP) - Posted seven games with double-digit strikeouts in 2011.  He'll start at AA Lehigh Valley with a couple other top pitching prospects.  This is why the Phillies really don't need Joe Blanton.

• Julio Rodriguez (RHP) - Another High A stud (16-7, 2.76 ERA) who improved as the season went on.  Outside of strikeouts, he actually outperformed May.  

• Austin Hyatt (RHP) - Seems underrated considering his stellar work in AA this past season (12-6, 171 K's).  Hyatt projects more as a high-strikeout reliever, a commodity always in demand.

• Freddy Galvis (SS) - Named the Phillies top hitting prospect this season, Galvis climbed up to AAA with solid all-around production.  The enthusiasm here is a bit premature - Galvis' numbers weren't explosive by any means, but he's only 22 and is reportedly chock full of potential.  He's not ready to take over at SS for the Phils yet. 

• Honorable Mention - Jesse Biddle (LHP), Jon Pettibone (RHP), Justin de Fratus (RHP)

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